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Good Morning,

US mortgage demand falls as rates increase, Seattle Mayor hopes to create ‘investment vehicle’ for startups, U of I President steps down, Oregon may follow other states in banning Flock Cameras, Agility Robotics financials show $138M loss on $2.5B valuation, oil futures back above $100 as Iran war continues, Meta and Amazon cut their Seattle office foot print.

Rip is going off grid for a few days - see you back on the 15th

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PNW Market Look

As of market close 9.9.26

Women accounted for 98% of the 162,000 US jobs added in August (Ground)

Treasury yields jump as Bessent’s $6bn buyback plan disappoints investors (FT)

Headline Roundup

Micron's Operating Margin Surged Past 80% for the First Time Ever. (MF)
SEC filings reveal Agility Robotics' sales and losses ahead of SPAC debut (PBJ)
Federal rangelands rules overhaul could cut out Oregonians from public input (OPB)
Portland Water Rates Will Climb as the City’s Largest Wholesale Customers Disconnect From Bull Run Reservoir (WW)
Maritime skills center launches at Tacoma waterfront (DJC)
Sound Hotel trades for $35 million, as investors exit Belltown hotel/apartment hybrid (DJC)
Former Amazon employees sue over alleged discrimination against pregnant warehouse workers (KUOW)
Amazon adds cybersecurity veteran Kevin Mandia to board 2 years after he left Google (CNBC)
Cadlwell City Council approves firefighter labor agreement (IDP)
Carroll College cuts tuition by 40%, hopes to encourage more students to apply (HIR)
2 Oregon lawmakers move to outlaw Flock cameras statewide (ORL)
Boeing focuses on ‘industrial blueprint’ for next new plane (ST)
WA sues over federal endangered species rule change (ST)
Affordable Care Act insurance costs to rise steeply again in WA (WSS)
2025 GOP tax law will cost Oregon nearly $1.3B for Medicaid over next four years, officials say (WSS).
General Duffy’s Waterhole goes up for sale in downtown Redmond (BB)
Seattle Children's spinout raises $116 million, opens Eastlake office (PBJ)
Meta offices in Seattle, Redmond up for sublease following mass layoffs (PBJ)

A Message from G.A. Rogers

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Community Highlight

Seattle's sluggish economy and Mayor Wilson's plan to goose it (KUOW)

“Seattle is becoming dangerously dependent on a small number of large companies. This makes the city vulnerable to systemic disruptions, such as the way AI is reshaping work: “Seattle is 42% more exposed to AI disruption than the national average,” the report states. It also highlighted a 20% decline, nationally, in jobs for young software developers and an 18% decline in “AI-exposed jobs” for workers aged 22-25. Seattle’s reliance on large companies also means the city’s tax base is not very diverse. According to the report, only four large firms make up one quarter of Seattle’s software engineering jobs, as compared to 39 companies in San Francisco and 18 in San Jose.
Tall giants fall hard. Elimination or relocation of jobs in Seattle’s big tech firms could create unemployment in Seattle and big tax revenue problems for the city. Seattle has a healthy startup culture, the report finds; but unlike San Francisco and San Jose, once firms reach “mid-sized,” they leave. Seattle’s high cost of living doesn’t help, but these costs are even higher in San Francisco and San Jose. The bigger reason these firms don’t stick around is that venture capital is flowing not to Seattle’s AI startups, but to similar companies in the San Francisco Bay Area. This is one of the major reasons home prices are growing in San Francisco, but declining in Seattle, according to recent research by Redfin.
Seattle's reliance on big-tech taxes. The report states Seattle’s heavy reliance on the Jump Start Tax and B&O tax feeds a cycle where the city becomes more reliant on its large tech companies. That also means the city is more vulnerable to shifts in their employment patterns. “Seattle is very fiscally (and economically) dependent on a few firms,” the report explains. “Seattle’s business taxes are not high compared to peers, but they have grown quickly and their design discourages tech hiring.”

In response to these trends, Mayor Wilson today signed an executive order aimed at retaining startups after they grow big enough to leave their local incubators.

Executive order 2026-06 is aimed at supporting mid-sized firms, in hopes they will not flee to San Francisco, or other cities such as Austin and Denver, where the cost of living is lower. The executive order asks the city’s Office of Economic Development to propose a “Development Finance Institution” called the “Seattle Strategic Initiatives Fund.” That fund could invest directly in startups.

Another one of Mayor Wilson’s strategies is to reduce the cost of childcare, a major contributor to the high cost of living in the city, as startups consider the difficulty of recruiting new employees so they can grow.”

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Rip’s Spotlight

PORTLAND CLEAN ENERGY COMMUNITY BENEFITS FUND (PortlandGov)

“This report presents the Portland Clean Energy Community Benefits Fund’s (PCEF) funding awards for the 2025 Community Grants cycle, as approved by City Administrator Jordan. Guided by experience from previous funding rounds, input from community partners, guidance from City Council, and priorities outlined in the Climate Investment Plan, this year’s process reflects PCEF’s continued commitment to community-driven climate solutions”

Some of the questionable bits:

$658,145 for 100 e-bikes— EECRC

The Ethiopian and Eritrean Cultural and Resource Center received $658,145 over four years to distribute 100 e-bikes, provide workshops, transportation education and related programming. The report says the project expects the 100 users to save $65,000–$100,000 annually in transportation costs.

$253,743 for 25 free e-bikes — Street Trust

The Street Trust received $253,743 for one year to give 25 young people free Class 1 e-bikes, safety equipment, maintenance, training and education.

That's: $10,150 per participant.

$662,563 for OHSU's 50-bike employee loaner program

OHSU receives $662,563 over five years to add 50 e-bikes to its employee loaner program, hire a part-time coordinator and conduct outreach/education.

That's: $13,251 per additional e-bike.